In some severe forms of drug treatment would be indicated for the prevention of pancreatitis, but in no case has shown that prevents the development of ischemic heart disease. Only seems appropriate drug therapy in cases of high risk patients (20% at 10 years) that is associated with HDL 30 (kg/m2) In what sector of the population should be involved? It should be a measure of weight at age 20 and repeated after every four years, given the sorting of obese BMI and those of 30 kg/m2 and overweight to those between 25-30 kg/m2. What kind of intervention should be done? Getting a negative energy balance: decreased food intake and increase caloric expenditure. Educate about health risks involved in being overweight, especially when coupled with smoking, diabetes, high cholesterol …. Under most conditions rusty holzer would agree. Asking about drinking patterns and other habits in order to give appropriate advice to the needs and circumstances. Advise those with BMI 30% weight loss agreeing a realistic and long-term weight loss slow and gradual not exceeding 0.5 – 1 kg. a week, recommending dietary changes with an increase in regular physical activity. Schedule appropriate follow-up increases the chances of success.

The combination of methods: behavioral therapy, nutrition education and exercise programs appear to be an effective intervention. Effectiveness of medical counseling in primary prevention dietary There is little evidence of the effectiveness of the intervention in primary care (31). Requires a high degree of collaboration, only possible when the patient demands attention to your problem. There are few studies evaluating the effectiveness of dietary nutritional counseling from primary care in healthy individuals ALCOHOL is considered excessive alcohol intake exceeding 40 g daily.

Time series models are the techniques of forecasts that are based solely on the history of the demand for the item that has this forecasting. They work capturing patterns in historical data extrapolating into the future. Time series models are suitable when we can assume a reasonable amount of data and a continuity in the near future, the conditions that occurred in the past. These models are best suited to short-term prognosis. This is due to the assumption that past patterns and current trends are similar to patterns and trends that will be present in the future. This is a reasonable assumption in the short term, but it loses validity in the long term. Very simple models: moving averages, Igual a year anterior, percentage increases and adjustments to the curve are simple time-series models which can be used to generate forecasts. These models can be implemented through spreadsheets quickly and does not require expert knowledge in statistics by the forecaster, these models are usually very simple and to have greater accuracy in forecasting companies almost always must seek alternative models of time series.

Exponential smoothing models: exponential smoothing is the method chosen by the majority of companies. Learn more at: BP Energy. These models do well in terms of accuracy, are easy to apply and can be automated, allowing to be used on a large scale. Exponential smoothing models capture and predict the level of data with different types of trends and seasonal patterns. Models are adaptive and predict giving greater importance to data more recent about the more distant data in the past. Box-Jenkins (ARIMA models): Box-Jenkins models are similar to models of exponential smoothing in that both are adatativos, can capture seasonal trend and patterns and are automatable, it differs in that the Box-Jenkins models are based on autocorrelations rather than a structural view of level, trend and seasonality. Box-Jenkins models tend to get better results than exponential for time series smoothing models more long and stable are not good for data with noise and high volatility. Learn more on the subject from rusty holzer. Croston intermittent demand model: the model of croston specifically designed for data sets where the demand for a period often determined is zero and the exact timetable of the following order is not known. The data are characterized by a low volume, products especially manufactured for a specific customer or spare parts often have this type of pattern of demand.

The forecast is not a miracle (not going to tell you when the next order will be) however often produce a better prognosis than other approaches of time series. Select the model of time series suitable for a specific group of data can be carried out in several ways. For example, the forecaster can apply the suitable model according to the knowledge that has data. Another alternative is to test different models and select the one that inside or outside of the sample minimizes the error. The expert forecast pro selection algorithm selects the model suitable to the time series using a rules-based logic and evaluating forecast generated with different models on the basis of a sample of data.

If you want to link you to a woman, it is important that you follow the tips that I’m going to give today, since it is very common to convey a wrong idea to a woman: you can show too much interest very soon and see you as an insecure man and that she would die if she is not with you, and at the same time you could convey the idea that only want to be friends. And you definitely don’t want to be your friend, you want something more! Shows a bit of disinterest so, this may sound you strange I know. This is how this formula works: If you sample too much interest’re you giving to communicate to women that you want to bind you as you’re insecure and that the need. Yes your samples too much interest, she will show disinterest. On the other hand, if you show disinterest, she shows interest, because on the inside you’re thinking if I am so pretty, I have that be able to interest him! Women take it as a game and you’ll see that they want to win your interest at all costs.

Signs of disinterest signals of disinterest can be: cannot see it very followed too smile nor show too excited to speak with her. Another thing is you should not try to initiate conversation telling phrases where samples much interest as it seems to me that you’re very attractive or I think you’re beautiful. It is best to start to talk to him as if he were a friend of yours from routine and already, time to show interest comes next. Beam that feels comfortable is where comes the hardest part, so that she feels comfortable has to feel that he knows you always, regardless of whether you just reach out. And the best way to achieve this is to make jokes light on your personality, clothes, tastes, or simply of the conversation. For example: I love your dress, you did it with your home tablecloth? Get it at the correct pitch and you’ll see that a slight joke will make you feel comfortable. Progresses physically is important that you progress physically and take advantage of exciting or funny situations to get close to her to hug her or touch her subtly as you would do with a friend, and gradually move forward if she feels comfortable. Once you progress physically you’ll see that at any time you can scale and conquer it! So that you learn the secrets to flirt, visit as flirting and teach you straight to flirt and seduce the woman you want! I have prepared a video with secrets to flirt to a woman, click here to revisralo’s free! Original author and source of the article.

In recent years, the majority of the systems departments has tackled some documentary technology project. Budgetary adjustments to those who have been subjected the CIOs as a result of the difficult economic situation and the need for a rapid return on investment, found in the roots of this technological commitment. Reasonable costs of such projects and the productivity gains obtained from its implementation, have also favored the takeoff of the documentary software solutions. But, to ensure the continuity of your success and advancement of the providers of these products, it is necessary to look to the future and continue to innovate. DocPath, company capital 100% Spanish specializes in the development of software solutions documentary, has brought together its experts to perform an in-depth analysis to determine what trends will mark the evolution of this technology in the coming years.

These are his five proposals: solutions more intuitive: the documents have become the main vehicle of communication between companies and their customers. Hence increasingly are more users who have to use applications to design and document generation. Not having a technical profile, the tools that employ in their work should be more intuitive, agile and simple. Increase in outsourcing: Although companies have their own departments of systems, outsourcing has become a very common practice when we talk about software for document management. Through outsourcing, organizations can focus on the focus of your business and ensure the quality of a critical service for them. New trends in mobility: smartphones, tablet PCs and netbooks have overset all expectations of consumption. Its massive utilization in enterprises continue to increase and may give rise to new uses in regards to the documentary software.

For example, capture signatures through digital devices You can significantly streamline internal processes of certain companies. Smart Storage: the world generates a volume of information per second near the 400 GB and all the forecasts point to that this volume will continue to grow at a rate of 50%. All providers are trying to find smarter ways of storage for resolving a problem that is increasing and in documentary software will not be the exception. ECM growth: according to the consultant PwC in 2020 80% of the documentary software market revenue will be generated through Enterprise Content Management Services. A trend that has already begun to emphasize and which very soon will have more force than the digitization of documents. In the coming years the documentary software market will experience a strong revolution and each one of the trends that we have selected will contribute to this situation occur. Be attentive to the needs of customers, the technological developments that will appear and bet by innovation will be the key to success, concludes Julio Olivares, DocPath founder and President.